Analysis
Reading retention curves without fooling yourself
A grounded guide to cohort windows, segments, seasonality, and the stories a curve cannot tell alone.
Retention curves compress many customer stories into one line. Before interpreting shape, define the eligible population, return action, and time window. A weekly workflow should not be judged by daily activity.
Segment deliberately. Plan, role, acquisition source, and first-use case can expose very different patterns. Keep cohort sizes visible so an attractive small segment is not mistaken for a broad trend.
The curve shows what happened, not why. Pair behavioural analysis with support themes, interviews, and release history. Strong analysis narrows the next question; it does not invent certainty.